Gartner predicts a 0.9% growth in the supply of smart devices in 2020
According to Ranjit Atwal, senior research director at Gartner, “2020 will see a partial revival of the market. Increasing access to 5G phones will speed up [the process of] replacing [old with new] phones; This will increase the global supply of these devices and return them to the path of growth in 2020.”
According to the Gartner findings reflected in the table below, the global smartphone market will witness a 1.7% growth in 2020. The supply of smartphones, which faced an annual decline of 2% in 2019, will be on an upward trajectory in the new year, especially in China and the emerging markets of Asia-Pacific.
The institute has estimated that 12% of all smartphone shipments in 2020 will be devices compatible with fifth generation technology, and this amount will reach about 43% by 2022. According to Atwal, it is expected that from 2020, the supply of products based on this technology will increase with the decrease in the price of 5G phones, the growth of the coverage of the fifth generation services and the improvement of the user experience in connection with the new network. He further predicted that the market will experience more extensive growth in this field from 2023, so that the supply of fifth generation devices will exceed fifty percent. The Apple company, which has not yet released any device compatible with 5G to the market has not provided, apparently this year it will launch new phones based on fifth generation technology, which can be one of the major factors in increasing the supply of smartphones globally.
Of course, the belief that 5G technology will be the main factor in the growth of smartphone sales in 2020 and the years after is still open to doubt. Some experts have argued that despite the rush of operators to provide 5G services, the special services and apps based on this technology that will increase the adoption of 5G devices have not yet been fully identified. Therefore, 5G technology has remained as an abstract concept, at least in terms of applications and supporting services, especially for the mass consumer market as well as businesses.
Global PC supply decline in 2020 and beyond
Although the supply of personal computers experienced a relative growth in 2019, however, the predictions about the future of these devices and their acceptance rate are negative. As expected, with the end of user migration to Windows 10 in 2020, the PC market will be affected and return to its downward trend.
Gartner analysts have estimated that the three-year period of growth of these products will end in the professional personal computer market by reducing the replacement of old devices with new ones; However, this does not mean that there are no opportunities to replace these products in 2020. As an example, the Chinese government has launched an innovative project called “Safe and Reliable PCs” to provide personal computers that are produced in this country, which, despite starting in 2019, will experience its growth period in the new year.
In addition, Microsoft ending support for Windows 7 on January 14, 2020 will accelerate the PC upgrade process in small and medium businesses, especially in emerging markets. Gartner predicts that over the course of 2020, one billion PC owners will migrate to Windows 10, accounting for about 80% of all PCs in use worldwide.
Besides these cases, two other important trends can affect the amount of supply in the hardware market. The first issue in this regard is the role that Google Chromebooks can play in the PC market. These devices have registered one of the fastest growth cases in the last year, and in the new year, the release of new models has made hardware manufacturers hopeful that their usage will increase with the improvement of Chromebook functions.
Another important trend in the hardware products market is the position of smart watches in this field. The third quarter of last year brought a 42% increase in supply for this group of devices, and the most successful among them was the Apple Watch, which, with a growth of 51%, surpassed the expanding boundaries of the smartwatch market.
From Ranjit Atwal’s point of view, the future of the PC market is not very predictable, because Windows 10 is the last version of the Windows operating system and from now on it will be updated systematically and regularly. As a result, the growth in the supply of personal computer hardware, which used to happen due to the updating of Windows operating system versions, will end.