Arm Examines: Will Comey’s Law Replace Moore’s Law?
Rob Aitken, Chief Technology Officer of Arm, recently spoke with Publication of an article on the official blog of this company, claiming that “Moore’s Law” is the last days It is approaching and soon we will need a new law and computing tool to estimate and discuss the progress of the computer field in the coming years. According to Aitken, the category of decarbonization of computer products for the sake of saving the planet shows that “processing power” alone will not be the priority in the technology roadmap.
Moore’s Law has long been used as an industry roadmap in the field of technology. At first, Moore’s law was only considered a prediction and observed that the number of transistors on a chip will double almost every two years, and at the same time, the cost of its production will also decrease. After some time, this rule officially became the blueprint for progress, and in line with this rule, we saw that chips that housed 2,250 transistors in 12 square millimeters gave way over time to chips that housed only 1 A square millimeter has more than 100 million transistors. It’s not bad to know, Apple’s M1 chip – made with TSMC’s 5nm lithography – contains 16 billion transistors!
But according to Aitken, Moore’s law has reached its last days. The rate of progress has slowed down and transistors have become so small that it can be said that the number of atoms along the gates of a transistor has reached several tens of atoms. When Moore’s Law was first formulated, the computer world was a new and exciting field, and few people paid attention to the relationship between climate and the energy consumed by computers, because despite the enormous consumption of old computers, there were very few of them.
Aitken believes that the relationship between digital deprivation and social exclusion is well understood; Where currently 3.7 billion people in the world do not have full access to digital technology. Bridging the digital divide is a moral imperative, but it also presents the tech industry with a new dilemma: How do we moderate the environmental impact of 3.7 billion new digital consumers? Or, in other words, how is it possible to connect all people anywhere in the world without accelerating the rate of climate change, which is catastrophically high?
According to Aitken, the roadmap of the computer world cannot focus solely on increasing processing power. Extracting maximum performance from a chip – or, in other words, performance per watt – remains one of the top priorities of the computer industry. But the amount of energy consumed over time is another thing that should be taken into consideration. The ability of data centers to dispose of the generated thermal energy has limited these centers to some extent and servers also face energy limitations. Mobile devices are limited to the energy stored in batteries and thermal limitations have kept their instantaneous power at a certain ceiling. According to Aitken, currently renewable energies are not very responsive to the needs of the computer industry. The sensor in a solar cell is actually connected to a huge source of available energy, but the problem is that little energy is produced by it.
According to Aitken, it is time to replace Comey’s law with let’s go Comey’s Law was invented in 2010 by one of Stanford University’s professors, Jonathan Koomey. Unlike Moore’s Law – which predicted the processing power of chips – Comey’s Law measures the number of calculations performed by the chip per joule of energy consumed. According to observations made from 1945 to 2000, the number of said calculations has doubled every 18 months (that is, 100 times per decade). But since 2000, its increasing process has slowed down and the number of calculations has doubled every 2.6 years (that is, 16 times per decade).
According to Aitken’s article, Comey’s Law is more consistent with today’s consumer experience And therefore, in drawing the technology road map, this law should be relied on more. Our digital life includes several devices; Where battery life and performance per watt matter more than just performance. In other words, in order to realize the goal of reducing the use of carbon to preserve the earth’s materials, preparations must be made so that in the technology roadmap, categories such as energy saving and keeping the earth clean are placed above the processing power of chips.
Perhaps the most interesting conclusion of Aitken in his recent article is that Moore’s law and Comey’s law are not laws of nature, but rather observations on the path of technology and we can use them to predict the possible state of the industry in the future. For example, based on what is learned from Comey’s law, it is expected that devices will continue to consume less and the consumption of processors will decrease to the extent that they can provide the energy they need from their surroundings.
With all these words, despite the great emphasis on the environment and energy, Moore’s law still remains in force and will probably be our guest for the next few years. TSMC is going to start the production of 4nm chips this year, and the production of 3nm chips will start in the second half of next year. Both the top chipmaking giants – TSMC and Samsung – plan to lithography their chipsets in the near future. to reach 2 nm. But according to experts, when the chip industry enters 1 nm lithography, the equations will be disturbed and it is possible that Moore’s law will lose its validity.